As population shifts and operating costs reshape the restaurant landscape, suburban and rural markets are emerging as the industry’s next frontier.
Taco John’s CEO Heather Neary gives a look at where expansion is happening next.
For decades, restaurant growth strategies have followed a familiar roadmap: chasing high foot traffic storefronts with a goal of cornering the market and building a major metropolitan presence. But as the industry enters a new era, the map for expansion continues to be redrawn, with a quieter, more sustainable route that is making waves.
Many brands are venturing beyond the country’s largest cities into suburban and rural regions, discovering that America’s Heartland is not a secondary option, but a primary growth engine. This shift is not a coincidence. As operators face rising rent and labor costs in the cities, population shifts, remote work, and a demand for convenience have driven many brands outward.
At Taco John’s, we’ve built a strong foundation in suburban and rural areas across the country where we are deeply rooted in local communities. We’ve seen firsthand that these markets are not only viable, but they are thriving. The combination of growing local economies, increasing population retention, and unmet demand for quick-service restaurant options create a powerful opportunity for long-term growth.
Economic Growth Drives Long-Term Stability in the Suburbs
Suburban and rural areas bring a different kind of value to the equation. Many of these markets are currently experiencing steady economic growth fueled by new business development, population growth, and expanded job opportunities. For restaurant operators, this translates into lower occupancy costs, more employee retention, and sometimes less direct competition – all of which translate into a more attractive franchising opportunity driven by scalability.
These markets also tend to offer long-term stability. While metro areas can experience market volatility due to economic shifts or consumer trend changes, Heartland communities often provide steadier demand. That consistency is becoming a competitive advantage.
Value-Driven Consumers Continue to Reshape Restaurant Strategy
Consumer expectations continue to evolve, but value remains at the center of decision-making. Today’s diners are looking beyond just price – they expect quality, full portion sizes, consistency, and hospitality that earns repeat visits and loyalty. It’s also crucial to remember that consumer behaviors differ in markets across the country, so restaurants need to understand who they are serving to effectively build out their strategy.
It’s also important that brands understand the role that restaurants play in the markets they are entering. In some communities, restaurants act as vital “third places” for people to gather and connect. In other communities, restaurants serve as convenient, grab-and-go dining options. This is where flexible and accessible models play a key role, allowing brands to seamlessly integrate into these communities to meet guests’ needs right where they are. In many non-metro areas, drive-thru and digital ordering services are not added conveniences, they’re expectations. By investing in operational efficiencies and flexible formats, brands can maintain the quality and consistency that guests expect.
Disciplined Growth Builds a Resilient National Footprint
Despite the clear opportunity for long-term growth, not every brand succeeds in these markets. One of the most common missteps is applying an urban-centric approach to fundamentally different communities. It’s crucial that restaurants take a disciplined approach to growth, researching the territories and building community trust and loyalty, regardless of the size of the market. Opening locations too quickly can create confusion, inauthentic messaging, and distrust in communities.
Urban, suburban, and rural consumers may all have different priorities, and real estate strategies must account for accessibility and visibility, rather than density. It’s crucial that brands choose the appropriate storefront model with adaptable operations to meet consumer behaviors. Brands must also foster deep personal connections within the communities they serve, rather than taking broad marketing approaches.
Embracing evolution is key when entering new territories. Flexible restaurant formats, tailored marketing strategies, and a close pulse on consumer demographics will help guide a planned path to entry and build a steady foundation for growth. By prioritizing Heartland markets, brands can build more diversified and resilient footprints.
Looking ahead, the next phase of restaurant growth will favor brands that take a strategic approach to growth, not those who expand for the sake of maintaining a presence. Success will be defined by balance between urban and non-urban markets, speed and sustainability, and scale and operational excellence.
Joining Taco John’s in February 2024, Heather Neary brings over two decades of relevant experience in restaurant, brand, and franchise leadership to her role as President and CEO. Prior to Taco John’s, she served as the Brand President at KBP Brands, a large QSR Franchisee. She began her restaurant career with the international pretzel franchise, Auntie Anne’s, culminating in the role of Brand President. Neary is an active member of the International Franchise Association and serves on the Board of Directors for the National Restaurant Association. She also serves on the Board of Directors for Essential Property Realty Trust (NYSE: EPRT) and on the Board of Advisors for Alex’s Lemonade Stand Foundation.